Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-11 12.969825 15.803819 18.955576 22.698955 27.001222 31.768414 37.426756
2026-01-18 9.146885 12.848770 17.414153 23.362602 30.805395 39.704533 51.034318
2026-01-25 6.624511 10.493112 15.686311 22.961449 32.663296 44.918949 61.305425
2026-02-01 5.175358 9.107191 14.781597 23.218887 35.055413 50.656321 72.300650
2026-02-08 3.968180 7.748436 13.598986 22.795606 36.304226 54.791468 81.276523
2026-02-15 3.025771 6.560523 12.419923 22.130856 37.015558 58.092914 89.164537
2026-02-22 2.545092 6.036223 12.165738 22.771127 39.586672 64.040743 100.892006
2026-03-01 2.013390 5.278543 11.382793 22.439084 40.598620 67.737372 109.554221
2026-03-08 1.642553 4.739753 10.880005 22.474559 42.126365 72.206913 119.459460
2026-03-15 1.242222 4.017000 9.904872 21.557168 42.004341 74.127716 125.646156
2026-03-22 1.069496 3.774617 9.814573 22.184998 44.439605 80.052470 138.002344
2026-03-29 0.899673 3.486875 9.579809 22.505013 46.348895 85.212098 149.364875
2026-04-05 0.748907 3.218736 9.379225 22.940733 48.618403 91.265721 162.699151
2026-04-12 0.633209 3.013885 9.289487 23.594082 51.339594 98.222252 177.796341
2026-04-19 0.484759 2.635787 8.717162 23.188684 52.092164 101.952240 187.923837
2026-04-26 0.394704 2.415147 8.481603 23.448043 54.070295 107.792854 201.610530
2026-05-03 0.298329 2.112146 7.964108 23.021464 54.693991 111.330158 211.660744
2026-05-10 0.216859 1.811824 7.377427 22.351519 54.770146 113.890890 220.162488
2026-05-17 0.183079 1.717148 7.360633 22.996795 57.487164 121.183875 236.749932
2026-05-24 0.136382 1.511733 6.957594 22.662160 58.183652 124.894082 247.424009
2026-05-31 0.105652 1.370025 6.719345 22.697913 59.633113 130.003140 260.613930
2026-06-07 0.070302 1.146327 6.137528 21.773320 58.976707 131.212447 267.131813
2026-06-14 0.058541 1.093209 6.148420 22.406086 61.702045 138.782648 284.883038